The Global Energy Summary is POWERGLOBE’s global view of energy demand and supply through 2040. We use the data and findings in the book to help guide our long-term investments. It also highlights the dual challenge of ensuring the world has access to affordable and reliable energy supplies while reducing emissions to address the risk of climate change. We share the Summary with the public to help promote a better understanding of the issues shaping the world’s energy needs. This report has been prepared by POWERGLOBE (Energy Research and Development Division).
Why is this important?Because energy is fundamental to modern life. It is critical to human progress and to improving living standards for billions of people across the globe.Modern energy is one of mankind’s most complex endeavors, and its path is shaped by countless forces. However, we see seven key themes that will play a major role in defining our global energy landscape through 2040.
Energy fundamentals and thinks to know.
What will the world’s energy picture look like in the future?To find the answer,start by studying the world’s long-term demographic and economic trends. By 2040, world population is expected to reach 9.1 billion,up from 7.3 billion today. Over that same period, global GDP will effectively double, with non-member countries of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) seeing particularly high levels of economic growth. This means rising living standards in essentially every corner of the world, and billions of people joining the global middle class. This economic expansion, coupled with growing numbers of people, will help drive up global energy demand. By about 25 percent by the year 2040, similar to adding another North America and Latin America to the world’s current energy demand. The world will need to pursue all economic energy sources to keep up with this considerable demand growth. Oil and natural gas will likely be nearly 60 percent of global supplies in 2040, while nuclear energy and renewables will grow about 50 percent and be approaching a 25 percent share of the world’s energy mix.
Energy underpins economic growth.
High levels of growth mean rising living standards. Across the world, the middle class will more than double in the next 15 years. As this growth accelerates so does consumption. Demand for energy increases with more people expecting access to air-conditioned homes, cars and appliances like refrigerators, dishwashers and smartphones. Non-OECD countries lead the way for energy demand. Continuing urbanization in China and India, with people moving from rural areas to cities, will help to drive economic growth. China is likely to be the largest contributor of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gains.India is also growing strongly with its share of global GDP doubling. The global energy mix is evolving.As global economies grow and government policies change, the energy mix will continue to diversify. Nuclear and renewables will grow strongly with natural gas growing the most. The diversification of energy supplies reflects economics and advanced technologies as well as policies aimed at reducing emissions.
Sources: QGN, QP, Shell, ExxonMobil, OPEC, QEN, RES REPORT, Global Energy, CCN Energy, Bloomberg Commodities, ICIS, Platts, NIC, PG Global, Reuters.